Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 2.317213 2.703121 3.131009 3.640309 4.229720 4.890144 5.686080
2026-01-04 1.717598 2.233658 2.867674 3.702485 4.771483 6.093243 7.850685
2026-01-11 1.345790 1.913932 2.673206 3.758861 5.268097 7.288606 10.195930
2026-01-18 1.084452 1.663940 2.495517 3.770137 5.668493 8.384387 12.557815
2026-01-25 0.889944 1.459432 2.329103 3.745300 5.984453 9.377023 14.894005
2026-02-01 0.704175 1.226928 2.071636 3.524733 5.949621 9.818134 16.436985
2026-02-08 0.580720 1.069287 1.900378 3.402975 6.035845 10.436088 18.316633
2026-02-15 0.498651 0.966069 1.799613 3.376951 6.266794 11.305532 20.712338
2026-02-22 0.453677 0.920994 1.791230 3.508182 6.784475 12.721694 24.232285
2026-03-01 0.395861 0.840670 1.704233 3.477706 6.996406 13.612374 26.909217
2026-03-08 0.344159 0.763102 1.609484 3.415423 7.133969 14.374720 29.432523
2026-03-15 0.306326 0.707584 1.549377 3.411601 7.382523 15.373483 32.532721
2026-03-22 0.295263 0.710104 1.613271 3.683450 8.251748 17.745663 38.780498
2026-03-29 0.267903 0.671437 1.583886 3.752361 8.707299 19.346710 43.679100
2026-04-05 0.243180 0.634450 1.552320 3.811570 9.151071 20.983819 48.885961
2026-04-12 0.218593 0.593146 1.503931 3.823721 9.489169 22.434739 53.879465
2026-04-19 0.195105 0.550140 1.444265 3.798786 9.735505 23.710275 58.644450
2026-04-26 0.164672 0.482855 1.313259 3.575236 9.466037 23.755975 60.529841
2026-05-03 0.143288 0.436171 1.227009 3.451810 9.426749 24.340461 63.790102
2026-05-10 0.128816 0.406339 1.180338 3.425432 9.633084 25.551501 68.766987
2026-05-17 0.122093 0.398102 1.191351 3.558495 10.282449 27.960128 77.116014
2026-05-24 0.110180 0.371679 1.146708 3.527595 10.479350 29.226495 82.644494
2026-05-31 0.098607 0.344030 1.093887 3.464445 10.576489 30.241893 87.637653